Factors that indicate a shortage?
- Unrest in the Ivory Coast and a western Africa drought (where most of the world's cocoa beans are grown)
- Lack of profitability for the farmers (They earn less than $1 a day in selling to large chocolate corporations.)
- Higher demand for chocolate
Since 2005, cocoa's price skyrocketed 44%. Candy has gotten more expensive, but then, so has everything else. The chocolate companies apparently understand the ups and downs of agriculture and are absorbing much of the increase in production costs.
Naturally, though, they won't want to negatively affect their profits too much, so if Africa doesn't see some rain and the Ivory Coast citizens don't push in their manners buttons, there will be less chocolate. Thus, the end cost for chocoholics like myself will be very, very high.
Mormons often stock three years' worth of foodstuffs. I think I should take a hint from them and stock years' worth of chocolate.